Since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu took office in 2023, Nigeria has seen a significant wave of political defections, with a growing number of opposition politicians, particularly from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), joining the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).1 This trend has led to a major political realignment and ignited concerns about the potential for a one-party state.2
The “Hurricane Tinubu” Effect
The term “Hurricane Tinubu” has been used to describe the mass defections that are strengthening the APC’s dominance.3 This political maneuvering is seen as part of the preparations for the 2027 general elections.4
- High-Profile Defections: The defections have included governors, federal lawmakers, and other influential figures.5 For example, the governors of Enugu and Bayelsa states, Peter Mbah and Douye Diri, have recently left the PDP for the APC.6
- Mass Movement: The trend isn’t limited to high-profile politicians.7 In one instance, more than 64,000 members from the PDP, ADC, and other groups in Jigawa State defected to the APC.8
- Reasons for Defection: While some politicians cite a desire to align with the federal government for national development and to attract federal projects to their states, others have been accused of being motivated by personal political ambition and a quest for power.
Fears of a One-Party State
The continuous weakening of the opposition has fueled fears that Nigeria, Africa’s largest democracy, is moving toward a one-party system.9
- President Tinubu’s Stance: In a Democracy Day address, President Tinubu denied any plans to turn Nigeria into a one-party state, stating that a multi-party structure is essential for the country’s democracy.10
- APC’s Response: Vice President Kashim Shettima and other APC leaders have defended the defections, arguing that they are a sign of the opposition’s internal cracks and the APC’s growing appeal as a “political home where ideas find expression.”11
- Opposition’s View: Opposition parties, particularly the PDP, have expressed concern.12 They accuse the government of using state mechanisms to pressure and lure opposition politicians.13 A PDP spokesman has called on Nigerians to resist what he terms a “plot to foist a despotic one-party regime.”14
- Historical Context: Political defection is not a new phenomenon in Nigerian politics.15 It has been a consistent feature of the country’s political landscape, often driven by personal calculations rather than ideological differences.16 However, the current scale of the defections, particularly from the main opposition party, has heightened concerns about the health of Nigeria’s multi-party democracy.17
