2027: Opposition splits over NASS poll shift plan

Political parties in Nigeria are experiencing significant internal disarray and splits as they prepare for the 2027 general elections.¹ While there is no specific report of a single “NASS poll shift plan” causing a split, there are several key issues that have led to significant divisions within the opposition.

Here’s a breakdown of the key factors causing the opposition to split:

• Leadership and Coalition Crises: The main opposition parties, including the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP), are in a state of political flux.² The PDP is still grappling with the fallout from the 2023 elections, with unresolved leadership questions and factional disputes.³ Similarly, the LP has been plagued by allegations of mismanagement and leadership tussles.⁴ A new coalition led by the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has been formed with prominent opposition figures, but it too faces internal friction and no clear consensus on its presidential candidate.⁵
• Political Defections: A significant factor contributing to the disarray is the ongoing “gale of defections” from opposition parties to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).⁶ While this may seem to strengthen the ruling party, it also deepens the internal complexities and competition for positions within the APC.⁷ For the opposition, it signals a loss of key members and a weakening of their structures.
• Zoning and Power Rotation: Within the PDP, the decision to zone its 2027 presidential ticket to the South has reignited debates and divisions.⁸ This is a direct response to the controversy that fractured the party in 2023 when it fielded a northern candidate while retaining a northern chairman.⁹ The decision has been seen as an attempt to reset the party’s direction but has also caused new debate.¹⁰
• Electoral Reforms and Legislative Changes: The National Assembly is in the process of drafting a new Electoral Act (Amendment) Bill, 2025, to guide the 2027 elections.¹¹ While the bill aims to improve the electoral framework, including the potential for electronic transmission of results and early voting, the process of its passage and the specific provisions could be a source of future political contention and division among parties.
• Weakened Structures: Overall, political parties in Nigeria are described as being in disarray and lacking cohesive, ideologically coherent structures.¹² This is particularly true for the opposition, whose internal strife has shifted focus away from policy debates and a clear developmental vision, instead centering on personal and factional battles.¹³